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Economic Vulnerability Assessment June 2020

Economic Vulnerability Assessment June 2020

Economic Vulnerability Assessment June 2020

CERP has recently released findings from the June 2020 Economic Vulnerability Assessment (EVA). The EVA is a monthly phone survey of a random sample of households in urban Punjab (specifically, Lahore and Faisalabad) and rural south Punjab. The goal of the survey is to quantitatively show how COVID-19 is impacting households in real-time, and to inform policy interventions.
The main findings of the June 2020 survey (conducted during June 12-July 7) are:

Concerns of Households
Income/employment was most often cited as the main concern of households, with 43% of the respondents choosing it.
Health was cited as the top concern by 15% of respondents. However, it was listed among the top 3 concerns for 46% of respondents.

COVID-19
15% of households know someone afflicted with COVID-19. The vast majority (88%) are worried about the spread of COVID-19.
Nearly 75% of households think lockdowns are effective for slowing the spread of the virus, but only 40% support such policies.
93% of households report taking some precaution in response to the pandemic, with wearing a mask (81%) and washing hands (77%) cited as the most common measures.

Health
13% of households have missed required vaccines for a child and 6% have not gone to a doctor even when someone was sick.
43% of households report that someone in the household felt anxiety, loneliness, or depression in the past 7 days.

Income and Spending
54% of households have suffered income losses between February 2020 and May 2020.
The average change in income during this period is a decline of 30%.
Households expect only a slight increase in incomes in the next month, relative to May.
Impacts on household spending are much smaller. A quarter of households had declines in spending during February-May, but the average change in household spending during this period is a small decline of 1.5%.
Little systematic difference in impacts between rural and urban areas.

Financial Outcomes
45% of households have missed at least one monthly payment, and a similar proportion expect to miss a payment in the next month. The most common form of payment that is being missed by households is electricity bills.
32% of households have had to borrow money in the past two months. Family/friends are the main source of borrowed money.

Food
17% of households were unable to buy essential food items (this proportion jumps to 26% in rural areas)
Half of households had to make some compromise on food (for example, reducing the size of meals, or relying on donations etc.)

For more detailed findings, view the slide deck here. The EVA is a rotating panel, with some respondents re-interviewed the subsequent month, and new respondents being pulled in. The survey is scheduled to be fielded monthly till November 2020 at least.